How accurate are we?
Every day we take what pilots actually reported the day before and compare it with what our forecast showed for that place, time and height. No cherry-picking: every report with a turbulence level between about 25,000 and 45,000 feet over North America counts.
81%
When pilots reported moderate or stronger bumps, our forecast showed bumps (Ripples or more) within 50 km.
55%
When pilots reported a smooth ride, our forecast showed Smooth there too.
Last 15 days · 14,149 pilot reports. Strong bumps shown as Bumpy or more: 53%. Smooth reports where we showed Bumpy or more: 20%.
All reports
| What pilots felt | Smooth | Ripples | Bumpy | Seatbelt on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pilots said: smooth | 1976 | 927 | 501 | 217 |
| Pilots said: light bumps | 2667 | 2376 | 1444 | 1075 |
| Pilots said: moderate or stronger | 564 | 839 | 686 | 877 |
Day by day
| Day (UTC) | Reports | Moderate or stronger | Bumps shown nearby | Smooth called smooth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | 400 | 74 | 78% | 73% |
| 2026-10-18 | 513 | 99 | 82% | 77% |
| 2026-10-17 | 1173 | 267 | 81% | 61% |
| 2026-10-16 | 1551 | 408 | 85% | 52% |
| 2026-10-15 | 1217 | 335 | 85% | 53% |
| 2026-10-14 | 1201 | 282 | 84% | 46% |
| 2026-10-13 | 645 | 113 | 66% | 46% |
| 2026-10-12 | 675 | 122 | 76% | 64% |
| 2026-10-11 | 1111 | 228 | 76% | 54% |
| 2026-10-10 | 1342 | 206 | 84% | 54% |
| 2026-10-09 | 1303 | 259 | 84% | 43% |
| 2026-10-08 | 823 | 147 | 80% | 53% |
| 2026-10-07 | 716 | 126 | 76% | 53% |
| 2026-10-06 | 631 | 120 | 73% | 59% |
| 2026-10-05 | 848 | 180 | 82% | 50% |
How we check
- Reports: pilot reports from NOAA's Aviation Weather Center that include a turbulence level, grouped as smooth, light, or moderate and stronger.
- Forecast: the newest forecast we had published before each report (made less than 6 hours earlier), at the report's height band.
- Nearby: the highest level our forecast showed within 50 km, because a few minutes of flying covers that distance and the weather model works on a grid about 25 km wide.
- Tuning: we adjust the forecast using past days, then keep checking it on new days. Each day stays scored with the settings we actually used that day; we never re-score old days.
- Limits: most pilot reports come from North America, pilots report bumps more often than smooth rides, and our scale is still being tuned. We show the numbers anyway.