Calm guide
How to read a turbulence forecast
A turbulence forecast tells you where along your route the air is likely to be bumpy, how strong and for how long, based on the latest weather model. It is most useful in the last day or two before departure, and it is a probability, not a promise.
You open a forecast the night before your trip and it says 84% smooth. What does that actually mean?
The smooth percentage
It's the share of your flight time where the forecast looks Smooth. The rest is split into minutes of Ripples, Bumpy and Seatbelt on. A long-haul flight at 84% smooth might still have 40 minutes of ripples spread over two or three places. That's an ordinary flight.
The map and the timeline
The map shows your route coloured by level, with the places where the ride changes: "Rocky Mountains, 3h58 in, 14 minutes of ripples". The timeline underneath shows the same flight from takeoff to landing, so you can see when each part comes. Tap any part to see what it should feel like.
The confidence label
Weather forecasts get better as the day gets closer. We show High confidence when departure is less than 24 hours away, Medium up to 72 hours. If you check two days out and again on the morning of the flight, the second forecast is the one to trust; it's normal for details to move.
What a forecast can't know
- Your exact route and height. Airlines file routes on the day and change height in flight. We assume the shortest path and a typical cruising height, and we say so.
- Small, short-lived bumps. Some turbulence is too small for any weather model to see, like the wake of another aircraft or a single cloud.
- What the pilots will do. Crews avoid known rough areas when they can, so a forecast bump may never reach you.
The forecasts pilots use
Airline pilots and dispatchers have their own turbulence products. Knowing what they are helps make sense of ours.
- Pilot reports (PIREPs). Pilots report the turbulence they meet, with position, time, height, intensity and aircraft type. The FAA asks pilots to send them urgently and calls them the best source of information on clear-air turbulence. NOAA's Aviation Weather Center publishes them live.
- GTG (Graphical Turbulence Guidance). A US forecast that combines more than ten turbulence algorithms, weighted against pilot and aircraft reports, updated hourly out to 12 hours, with a 15-minute "nowcast" over the United States.
- WAFS. The World Area Forecast System, set up by ICAO and run by NOAA and the UK Met Office, produces global gridded forecasts of clear-air turbulence, icing and storm clouds for airlines.
- EDR (eddy dissipation rate). The international standard measure of turbulence intensity in automated aircraft reports. It describes the air itself, so it doesn't depend on the aircraft type.
These tools are built for flight operations and speak in technical units. A passenger forecast has a different job: to translate the same physics into minutes, places and how it will feel.
Turbulence map or flight forecast?
A turbulence map shows bumpy areas over a whole region at one height and time. It's useful for a feel of the day, but it leaves you to work out where your aircraft will be and when. A flight forecast does that work: it follows your route, your cruising height and your timing, and gives you a timeline from takeoff to landing. That's what Turbulence Radar is built for.
How Turbulence Radar makes its forecast
We compute our own turbulence indices from the ECMWF global model at three cruising heights, follow your flight minute by minute, and check ourselves every day against reports from pilots. The method is on How it works and the results, good and bad, on our accuracy page.
When you're ready, check your flight.
Questions people ask
How far ahead can turbulence be forecast?
The weather patterns behind turbulence can be seen several days ahead, but the details only become reliable in the last 48 hours or so. That's why our free forecast opens two days before departure and shows a confidence label.
Can a forecast tell me exactly when the plane will shake?
No. It shows where the air is likely to be bumpy and roughly when you'll be there. Pilots also change height and route on the day, often to avoid exactly those areas.
What is the difference between a turbulence map and a flight forecast?
A map shows bumpy areas for a whole region at one height. A flight forecast follows your path, your cruising height and your timing, and turns that into minutes and places.
Sources
We write these guides for passengers, from official and peer-reviewed sources. They are not medical advice and not for flight operations. How our forecast works.