Calm guide
Turbulence over the North Atlantic
The North Atlantic is one of the world's clear-air turbulence hotspots because the jet stream runs right along the busiest transatlantic routes. Research shows severe clear-air turbulence there has become more frequent since 1979, but bumpy patches are usually crossed in minutes, and crews plan around them.
Flights between New York and London, Boston and Paris, Toronto and Frankfurt share the same sky, and the same river of wind above it.
The jet stream runs along the route
The North Atlantic jet stream is a band of fast wind, high up, flowing from west to east between North America and Europe. Airlines use it: eastbound flights ride it for a tailwind, and westbound flights steer around it. But where the jet is strong, the wind changes speed quickly with height, and that wind shear is the main cause of clear-air turbulence.
The UK Met Office lists the North Atlantic corridor among the world's clear-air turbulence hotspots, alongside East Asia near Japan and mountain regions.
What the research says
In 2023, Prosser and colleagues published a study in Geophysical Research Letters using four decades of data. At a typical point over the North Atlantic, the yearly time spent in severe clear-air turbulence rose from 17.7 to 27.4 hours between 1979 and 2020, about +55%. Moderate rose from 70.0 to 96.1 hours (+37%) and light from 466.5 to 546.8 hours (+17%).
Put another way: even today, severe clear-air turbulence at a given point over the ocean adds up to about a day a year. Most of the time, most of the sky is smooth.
What crews do about it
Transatlantic routes are planned every day around the jet stream, and pilots share reports of bumpy air in real time. When a patch is reported ahead, crews can change height, switch on the seatbelt sign early and slow to the recommended speed for rough air. A typical patch, according to the FAA, is 100 to 300 miles long and a few thousand feet deep: on a long-haul flight that's usually a few minutes of ripples.
How to plan your transatlantic flight
- Check your flight the day before and the morning of. Our forecast follows the transatlantic track at your cruising height and shows where the jet-stream ripples are likely and for how long.
- Time your meal and walks around the bumpy parts on the timeline.
- Keep your belt fastened while seated, especially if you sleep.
- Sit forward of the rear if you can; see the best seat for turbulence.
Questions people ask
Why are flights to Europe faster than flights back?
Eastbound flights usually ride the jet stream as a tailwind, while westbound flights fly around or below it to avoid a strong headwind. The same jet stream is where clear-air turbulence often forms.
Is turbulence over the Atlantic getting worse?
A 2023 study in Geophysical Research Letters found that at a typical point over the North Atlantic, yearly hours of severe clear-air turbulence rose about 55% between 1979 and 2020, moderate about 37% and light about 17%.
When is the North Atlantic bumpiest?
The jet stream is usually strongest in winter, so bumpy patches tend to be more frequent then. Your forecast for the day matters more than the season.
Sources
- Prosser et al. (2023), Geophysical Research Letters; AGU press release
- UK Met Office blog, Turbulent flights and the climate connection (2025)
- FAA Advisory Circular 00-30C, Clear Air Turbulence Avoidance (2016)
We write these guides for passengers, from official and peer-reviewed sources. They are not medical advice and not for flight operations. How our forecast works.